Volatiliteetin aikana on hyvä palauttaa mieleen historiallinen kausimalli: marraskuu–huhtikuu on tyypillisesti vuoden selvästi vahvin pörssijakso.
Mahdollisia myötätuulia kurssikehitykselle lähikuukausina “animal spirits” -tekijöiden ohella ovat se, että Fed on aloittanut uuden koronlaskusyklin ja keskustelee QT-ohjelman lopettamisesta.
Dan Niles (Niles Investment Management) tiivisti näkemyksensä CNBC:llä perjantaina:
“Right now I am positioned for the market to head to new highs before the holidays and the goal is to catch as much of this inflating AI bubble as possible. As Mae West said, “Too much of a good thing can be wonderful!”….
So while I believe the market is suffering from “irrational exuberance” given current valuations, I believe it can extend even further fueled by easy money, strong Q3 earnings and AI optimism. As a reminder, Greenspan gave that famous “irrational exuberance” speech in December of 1996 during the internet buildout and the S&P doubled by its peak in March of 2000. Nasdaq rose 40% in 1998, then accelerated to 86% in 1999 and accelerated even further to a 24% gain in just over two months to start 2000 fueled by the inflating internet bubble. From the launch of Netscape Navigator in late 1994, the first mass market internet browser, it took over five years for the stock market to reach its bubble peak during the buildout of the internet infrastructure. Also these accelerating gains occurred despite the Fed raising rates from 4.75% in June of 1999 to 6.5% at its peak in 2000. This time, the Fed started cutting rates again from a range of 4.25-4.50% in September.”
